Donald Trump has promised that the United States will not attack Iran before next month's midterm elections, announcing a pause in a war he has struggled to end after almost eight months of fighting.

In a post on his Truth Social platform on Thursday, the US president said Washington was "having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran".

"We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd," he wrote. "IRAN WILL NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!"

The post did not say what the United States would do after polling day.

Competing claims

Mr Trump claimed Iran was "in very bad condition, both Economically and Militarily". Tehran has not accepted that characterisation, and Iranian officials have repeatedly insisted their armed forces remain in control of the Strait of Hormuz.

The president also claimed that oil was moving through the strait in record volumes — "22 Million Barrels, last night alone" — with "not one barrel coming from, or going to, Iran". That figure could not be independently verified.

Before the war, around a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passed through Hormuz. Traffic was all but halted after the US and Israel struck Iran in late February, and Iran has since restricted shipping in retaliation.

How the war has unfolded

The United States first imposed a blockade in April after talks in Islamabad collapsed. A short-lived deal in June to end the fighting broke down, and the blockade was reinstated in July.

Fighting flared again in early September. US forces struck rocket launchers on Iran's Larak Island, and Tehran responded by firing missiles at American bases in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.

This week, attacks on shipping have continued. A tanker was struck by projectiles off the coast of Qatar on Wednesday, with casualties reported, and Iran has threatened to close a southern route near Oman's coast. Responsibility for the Qatar attack has not been established.

The election factor

Mr Trump's public position on the link between the war and the elections has shifted. On 2 September, as US and Iranian forces exchanged fire for the first time in weeks, he told reporters he was "not affected by the election".

A week later, he said he expected the war to end almost as soon as voting was over, and accused Tehran of holding out in the hope that a change of control in Congress would leave it free to pursue a nuclear weapon. Iran has long denied seeking nuclear weapons.

He also conceded that US petrol prices were unlikely to fall before polling day.

Public opinion has turned against the conflict. A Reuters/Ipsos survey in late September found only about a third of Americans approved of the strikes on Iran, while more than four in five expected the conflict to last a long time. Approval of Mr Trump among Republicans fell from 82% to 73% in a single week.

Polling averages compiled by the forecaster Nate Silver now show Democrats leading Republicans by about nine points on the generic congressional ballot, the widest margin of the election cycle.

The Wall Street Journal reported in September that Vice-President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio had privately warned the president that the war could last for the rest of his term.

A pause, not peace

For now, the announcement offers a window of less than four weeks without US strikes, if it holds. It does not end the blockade, lift restrictions on shipping or resolve the nuclear dispute at the heart of the conflict.

Iran's response will be closely watched in Gulf capitals and on energy markets, where oil has climbed above $100 a barrel. Crews on tankers in the region, still facing attacks, will want more than a promise tied to an election date.

Whether the "productive discussions" Mr Trump describes can turn a pre-election pause into a lasting settlement is the question that will define the war's next phase — and possibly his presidency.