Councils in England are warning of potentially "catastrophic" debts, forecast to reach a record £10bn by 2028, because of rapidly rising demand for special educational needs and disability (Send) support in schools.
The government recently cleared more than £5bn in historic council Send debts. But a surge in requests for support means local authorities now predict they will have run up the same amount again by April – and doubled it within 18 months.
The forecasts were published by the County Councils Network (CCN), which represents England's largest local authorities.
A rush for support
At the heart of the problem is the education, health and care plan, or EHCP. These legally binding documents set out the support a child must receive for conditions such as speech and learning difficulties, autism or ADHD.
Applications for EHCPs have accelerated sharply this year. Councils believe that partly reflects a rush by parents and schools to secure plans before the government's changes to Send provision take effect.
Because councils have a legal duty to provide the support set out in each plan, they have little choice but to pay – even when the money is not there.
'Not the fault of councils'
Linden Kemkaran, the CCN's spokesperson on Send, said: "These deficits have not accumulated because councils have chosen to spend recklessly: they are the result of having to meet rapidly growing statutory demand, which has only intensified this year, without funding keeping pace."
She warned that taxpayers and local communities would ultimately bear the consequences "as councils face impossible choices about how to protect frontline services while managing debts that have accrued through no fault of their own".
"As well as councils absorbing skyrocketing costs, children and young people will face increasingly long waits for support and educational outcomes will continue to flatline," she added.
Risk of bankruptcy
The CCN is calling on ministers to guarantee future Send debts, warning that some councils could otherwise be left effectively bankrupt simply by meeting their legal duties.
When a council cannot balance its books, it can issue what is known as a section 114 notice, halting all but essential spending. Several English councils have done so in recent years, though for a variety of reasons.
Send deficits have been held off councils' main balance sheets by a temporary accounting arrangement. Without a long-term solution, local authority leaders fear that protection will not be enough.
A national pattern
The pressure on councils mirrors similar strains in the NHS and the benefits system, where the rising prevalence of mental health and neurodevelopmental conditions has pushed up demand.
The government-commissioned Fonagy report, published last week, found the increase in these conditions was real and a cause of genuine distress to many people. But it concluded that the resulting demand for support would be unsustainable without new ways of managing the pressure on public services.
The government's reforms
Ministers' reforms aim to gradually replace the current system with a more inclusive approach, in which more children with additional needs are supported in mainstream schools rather than through individual plans or specialist placements.
Supporters say that would mean earlier help for more children and less reliance on a costly and adversarial legal process. Some parents' groups fear it could weaken the legal protections that EHCPs provide.
Families caught in the middle
For families, the debate is not abstract. Many parents describe long battles to secure a plan, followed by waits for the support it promises. Some children spend months out of school while placements are found.
Teachers report that mainstream classrooms are already stretched, with too few specialist staff to meet the needs of every child.
The CCN says new ministers must now "provide certainty" that they will deliver the full package of reforms needed. Until then, councils say, the bill will keep rising – and children will keep waiting.
