Scotland to help draw up secret UK 'War Book' as military chiefs warn of Russian threat by 2030

The Scottish Government is to take part for the first time in drafting a new UK 'War Book', a classified plan setting out how the country would move from peacetime to conflict, as military chiefs warn of a growing risk of large-scale war by the end of the decade.

The concept of a War Book dates back more than a century, with secret versions produced during the First World War and refined through the Cold War to guide ministers, officials and local authorities through the steps needed to prepare Britain for an attack by a foreign power.

Those plans fell into disuse after the collapse of the Soviet Union, as the perceived threat of invasion receded. But concern about Russian aggression towards Nato has prompted the UK government to revive the idea as part of a wider programme of work on home defence.

A first for devolved government

This will be the first occasion on which the Scottish Government has been directly involved in drafting the document, with the work led by the Cabinet Office in Whitehall. Defence remains a reserved matter, but officials in London have accepted that devolved services, including health, transport and infrastructure, would all be affected in the event of war, making Scottish Government input necessary.

A Scottish Government spokesperson confirmed its participation in the process, saying that ministers took the safety and security of people in Scotland extremely seriously and that officials were working closely with UK counterparts on resilience planning.

The announcement comes against a backdrop of heightened alarm among senior military figures about the state of Britain's preparedness for conflict. Earlier this year, the Chief of the Defence Staff, Sir Richard Knighton, acknowledged that the UK did not currently possess a comprehensive national war plan of the kind that existed during the Cold War.

Why now

Defence analysts have pointed to a string of incidents involving Russian aircraft and vessels near Nato airspace and waters as evidence that the threat has sharpened considerably in recent years. Estonia's foreign ministry said in September that Russian jets had entered its airspace without permission and remained there for twelve minutes, one of several such episodes reported by Baltic states this year.

Officials involved in the review have said it will almost certainly expose gaps in Britain's capability and resourcing across government and the wider public sector, with implications for how much is spent on defence and resilience in the years ahead. The work is expected to be substantially complete by the end of 2026 and will be tested in a major home defence exercise planned for 2027.

Scotland's exposure

Defence experts have repeatedly argued that Scotland would be among the first places in the UK to feel the effects of any conflict with Russia, given the concentration of key Nato assets north of the border. HM Naval Base Clyde at Faslane, home to the UK's nuclear deterrent, and RAF Lossiemouth, which hosts the Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft used to track Russian submarines in the North Atlantic, have both been identified as likely targets in any confrontation.

Ed Arnold, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, has previously said that disabling those bases would be a priority for Moscow because it would cripple Nato's ability to monitor Russian naval movements in the North Sea and beyond. He said a direct strike on London would be far harder to achieve because of the distances and defences involved, making Scottish installations a more realistic early target.

Political reaction

The Scottish Government's direct involvement in planning for conflict marks a significant shift in how devolved administrations are being drawn into national security matters that have traditionally been handled almost exclusively by Westminster. Opposition politicians at Holyrood are likely to press ministers for more detail on what resources and responsibilities the Scottish Government will be expected to take on as part of the exercise.

Questions are also likely to focus on funding. Any expansion of Scotland's role in national resilience planning would almost certainly require additional investment in areas such as emergency services, transport infrastructure and public communications, all of which fall under devolved control.

What happens next

The War Book itself will remain a closely guarded document, not published in full, in keeping with its historical status as one of the most sensitive pieces of government planning. But officials have signalled that elements of the thinking behind it, including the scale of the threat assessment driving the work, are likely to be made public in the coming months as the UK government seeks to build support for higher defence spending.

Ministers at Westminster are already under pressure to commit to increasing defence spending to 3% of GDP by 2030, a target that defence chiefs argue is essential if the gaps identified by the War Book review are to be closed in time.

For Scotland, the renewed focus on national resilience is likely to reopen debate about the country's place within the UK's defence architecture, and about how much say Holyrood should have over decisions that could have profound consequences for communities living close to military installations on the Clyde and in Moray.